by GAUTAM SEN

It will probably never be known for certain who planned or authorized the assassination of Benazir Bhutto though the list of potential conspirators is long. Musharraf himself had much to gain since he clearly worries mostly about his own fate, political and personal, rather than Pakistan’s. At the very least, the Americans planned a sharing of power between him and the late Bhutto. This was emphatically not to his liking since he had managed to reduce her (and other political personalities) to whimpering domestic pets. The prospect of having to deal with her respectfully must have rankled. In the priapic world of Pakistan, the patriarchal cabal supposedly divinely ordained to rule vividly recalls the murder of the ill fated thirteenth century Iltutmish empress, Razia Sultana for temerity to rule despite being a woman. Without Bhutto, Musharraf avowedly becomes primus inter pares unless the US wishes to punish him on suspicion of being the author of the very risky venture of eliminating Bhutto, causing serious offence to God’s very own. But what would the US gain from Musharraf’s removal since he remains a skilled operator on their behalf and how could they be sure that it was indeed his doing? And each is capable of damaging the other grievously by public revelations about outrageous acts of deception and skulduggery committed by both.

The multitude of radical Islamist factions thronging much of contemporary Pakistan remembered Bhutto’s previous shenanigans only too well though she had befriended them, sponsoring Taliban rule and jihad against India when in power. True to form, few in India now seem willing to recall her promise to continue her father’s thousand-year Jihad against Hindu India. Her clan’s brazen greed is also recalled with stern Islamic distaste, dramatically compounded by her threat to allow the US freedom to intervene militarily against Al Qaeda inside Pakistan itself. The various Islamist factions embedded within the military establishment, including the ISI, cannot have been well pleased with her either for engaging in such treasonous chatter. Since they have led the US-led coalition to a merry dance inside Afghanistan (Cf. Sarah Chayes’, The Punishment of Virtue) such a threat would have been especially unwelcome now that a discreet suing for peace by the NATO coalition is in prospect. This outcome would mean a famous victory for Islam, almost comparable in political magnitude to the extirpation of the Crusader Kingdom of Jerusalem by Saladin in 1187 AD.

Nawaz Sharif, shedding crocodile tears for Bhutto’s demise cannot have failed to notice that he is the only one left standing next to the empty seat in the game of musical chairs serenaded by the Americans. But Sharif has grounds for anxiety because the life expectancy of Pakistan’s political class is increasingly of uncertain duration and the Americans are clearly mulling over confidential evidence of his misdeeds that have hitherto prevented them from a dalliance with him. The Islamist parties might regard Sharif’s politics as by far the lesser evil compared to what’s on offer from Bhutto’s inconsequential and thoroughly US-tainted retainers, which is exactly why the Americans are so resoundingly hesitant to even give him even a proverbial peck on the cheek! The historic alliance between traditional Islam and Anglo-American imperial ambition, so useful for tormenting Soviet communism and its supposed Indian lackeys, has become a delicately poised Vesuvian threat. Were it not for the fact that Indians are such a comprehensively confused bunch, given to swooning exclusively over Bollywood and cricket celebrities, they would have experienced some historically overdue Schadenfreude over the unholy mess. For decades they have been tormented by the US-Pak alliance, which is now impaled on an indissoluble, traditional Catholic marriage, for better for worse, mainly the latter, for the foreseeable future.

Yet the US cannot let go of Pakistan. Their nuclear weaponry has almost certainly been sterilized though the thwarted Pakistani leadership is allowed to launch the occasional imported Chinese medium range missile in consolation like an entertainment firework. But enough devout Islamists with an aptitude for the relevant sciences remain on the loose, fired by apocalyptic visions and anti-US sentiment, to cause heartburn in Washington. It is entirely possible that merely dismantling the existing nuclear infrastructure, however comprehensively undertaken, may not suffice to ensure American safety by preventing the re-assembly of serviceable nuclear devices through local ingenuity. Mumbai, to my mind, remains the likeliest target of the irate faithful because of foreknowledge of how the Americans would react if a nuclear device, originating in Pakistan, exploded in New York. But can any government leave such an outcome to the forbearance of Islamist decision-makers?

The current efforts of the US to foster democracy in Pakistan is truly a case of adding insult to injury since successive US administrations have been responsible for institutionalizing military rule within it as a Cold War instrumentality. In one of his moments of prescience Pandit Nehru had warned the Pakistani leadership during the 1950s of the potential cost of a Cold War alliance with the US. So successful was the US endeavor in creating a pliable Pakistan that any nascent signs of democratic and popular rule were totally destroyed. In fact it was autocratic rule that played a major role in dismembering Pakistan and the birth of Bangladesh. The judicial murder of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was also a product of murky political machinations to provide an absolute guarantee of US influence in it though one may be forgiven for concluding that it couldn’t have happened to a nicer man. To end military dominance in Pakistan has become a truly Herculean task since it has an overwhelming presence in every layer of society, especially as a key component of its dominant social classes. It cements ties between these social classes and the various apparatuses of the Pakistani State because the military has long provided the personnel for much of it even under civilian rule. The military has also emerged as the premier economic entrepreneurs within Pakistan and owns significant additional immovable assets. Indeed, the military has become synonymous with Pakistani State and society. Bhutto was only intended to provide a fig leaf of legitimacy and business would have continued as usual.